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刘因全
1/10/2013 12:22:02 AM

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【禁闻】中科院报告 绘制〝2049年大饼〞

2013-01-10 10:18 AM
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【新唐人2013年01月10日讯】中科院〝国家健康研究组〞8号发布了第1号《国家健康报告》。这份号称历时10年研究的报告中说，中国只要坚持善养国家的〝精气神〞，预计到2049年，一定能够全面超越美国。此话一出，不仅网友的讨论炸了锅，连喉舌媒体也说〝无稽之谈〞。

中科院〝国家健康研究组〞的研究人员使用了一个大众非常陌生的概念——〝国家健康指数〞。国内媒体介绍，广义理解〝国家健康〞就是〝国家运行的一种良好状态〞。根据这个指数，〝国家健康研究组〞把全球100个样本国家分为〝健康盈余型〞、〝健康达标型〞、〝健康透支型〞和〝健康脆弱型〞四类。

报告把美、英、日、韩等37个国家归类为〝健康透支型〞，认为中国、古巴、俄罗斯等国家则属于〝健康达标型〞。报告还形容，美国处于〝更年期〞，中国则处于〝青春期〞，早在2007年，中国〝国家健康状况〞就已经超过了美国。

有关这篇报告的报导一出，立即引发网友讨论。有的在微博上质疑〝这是科学研究还是相声段子〞，〝（中国）社会问题这么多，怎么就比人家更‘健康’了〞，还有网友说：〝最好笑又最愚昧的是，专家级别的课题组竟然没有设置‘人民满意度’这一最重要的指标，还谈什么国际地位？〞

更有网友按捺不住，写博客文章驳斥说〝毛泽东早已画过‘三年赶英、五年超美’的大饼，结果人民不但没吃到饼，还饿死千万。如今，人们更关心当下民生问题，今天菜价降了没有？……出言不慎，会不会被劳教、被精神病？出门会不会被开豪车的人给撞死？会不会再吃污染的食品和水，没活到2046就英年早逝？〞。

时政评论员汪北稷指出，美国之所以被公认强大，不单是物质和经济方面，还因为拥有文化和制度的优势，才让〝美国梦〞聼起来令人向往。

汪北稷：〝中国受到共产党过去30年的物质化追求的影响，总是从物质的角度来衡量一个国家，衡量它发展的水准，却很少从文化的角度，软实力的角度，它的制度的魅力去比较。〞

汪北稷认为，这项研究数据的真实性很难确认。

汪北稷：〝中国现在经济数据的取得，第一不真实。第二、中国的经济确实有发展，这种发展是透支了环境、人民健康、社会的矛盾，严重透支换来的，并不是一个相对和谐的前提下创造的经济数据。〞

中科院的这份报告不仅受到民众的质疑，连喉舌媒体也觉得话説的太大。

〝新华社新华视点〞发微博说，报告以〝生存方式〞考量〝国家健康〞，而眼下无论是〝表哥〞〝房妹〞，还是弃婴，都是社会病痛。先解决问题，不要动辄谈〝超越〞，更别轻易说〝复兴〞。

《中央人民广播电台》主办的《中国广播网》，采访了〝中国农业银行〞首席经济学家向松祚，他认为〝2049年中国将全面超美〞是无稽之谈。文章还被《中国日报》转载。

汪北稷：〝这个政党、政府、高层不断的爆发丑闻，但是却不能给人民一个合理的解释。却总是说自己很强大、很光荣、在前进。这种局面如果形容成一个人来讲就是‘病入膏肓’！〞

〝中国社会民主党〞中央委员会主持人刘因全指出，中国要复兴，必需要跨出一步。

〝中国社会民主党〞中央委员会主持人刘因全：〝专制制度造成中国目前发展的受阻，中国要真正的发展，真正的复兴，必须要进行政治体制的改革。〞

此外，这份报告还被抨击，和其他国家级别研究机关的研究结果矛盾。因为社科学院刚在去年底发布2013年《社会蓝皮书》，指出中国社会由于各种矛盾，导致每年群体性事件多达数万起，甚至十多万起。中科院自身也在去年发表一份农业研究报告，其中说到，中国农业经济水平，比美国落后约100年。

采访/李韵 编辑/尚燕 后制/葛雷

CAS Envisages "China's Bright Future" in 2049

Chinese Academy of Sciences'(CAS)'Research Group on Health of Nations'released its first report on January 8th.The report claims to have taken 10 years to study how to evaluate the "health condition" of a country as a whole.It concludes that China will be"healthier" than the USAin every aspect by 2049, as long as China continues to protect its national "spirit and energy."Such an opinion has immediately brought sharp criticismsfrom netizens and experts. Even the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) mouthpiecemedia remarked, this is a "groundless statement."

In its report, the CAS Research Group on Health of Nationsintroduces a rarely-known concept,'National Health Index.'According to Chinese media'reports,"health of a country"can be generally understood as how well the nation runs as a whole.Over 100 countries in the world were selectedas samples for this research. By evaluating their 'National Health Indexes,'they were categorized into four types.They are,"surplus", "standard,""overdrawn," and "fragile."

The report ranks 37 countries, including the US, UK, Japan,Korea, and others, as having an "overdrawn"health.On the other hand, China, Cuba, and Russiaare ranked as a "standard"health type. The report also describes the United States as being "in the climacteric"and China as "in adolescence"stage.It claims that China's"health conditions"havebecome better than the United States'since 2007.

The report has immediately became a hot topicamong Chinese netizens. Some remarked on the microblogs, "Is this a scientific research or some cross-talks?""With so many social problems how can Chinabe healthier than the United States?"Another wrote,"The funnies and stupidest thing about thisreport is, these professional researchers never create index of how satisfied the civilians feel from their country, which should be the most important thing. How can you improve international prestige without that?"

Another netizen even wrote a blog article to criticize the report. It said,"Long ago Mao told the Chinese to surpass UK in three years and catch up with the US in five years.However, it only resulted in tens of millions deathsfrom starvation. Now we care more about livelihood issues,such as, 'Has the food price dropped today?'Are we going to be put in a labor camp, or called 'psychopaths'if we are not careful with our words?Are we going to be killed by unscrupulous driversof luxury cars? Can we survive till 2049 by consumingpolluted water and food every day?"

Political commentator Wang Beiji remarked,the United States is regarded as a powerful countrynot only because of its strong economy, but also because of its advanced system in culture and politics.That's why the "American Dream"sounds so intriguing.

Wang Beiji: "Affected by the CCP's pursuit of over-developing material life in the past 30 years,many Chinese are used to judging a country only by its economic development. On the other hand, they rarely compare two countriesin their soft power, such as culture or regime."

In addition, Wang remarked that it can be difficult to verify the reliability of the data involved in this research.

Wang Beiji: "Firstly, China's economic statisticsare not reliable. Secondly, China accomplished its economic developmentat the cost of sacrificing environment, civilians'health, and causing many social problems.Therefore the "good-looking" economic achievementsare not made in a relatively harmonious way."

Not only Chinese civilians questioned the CAS report, even CCP's mouthpiece media cast doubts on its "big talks."

Xinhua's Viewpoint channel wrote on its microblog, CAS'report measures "health of a country" by its surviving style.However, there are so many problems at the moment such as abandoned infants and the existence of "Watch Brothers" or "House Sisters."The Xinhua article suggested "solving problems first,"instead of"easily talking about surpassing other countries," or "rejuvenation of our country."

China National Radio'website, Cnr.cn, posted an interviewwith Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of Agricultural Bank of China.Xiang said,"In 2049 China will be better than the USin every aspect" is nonsense and a "groundless statement."The interview was also published on the China Daily.

Wang Beiji:"The party (CCP) and its government cannot provide reasonable explanations for all the scandals of its high officials, which brake out one after another. Despite this, it continues to describe itself as a"powerfuland glorious" party, which always makes progress. It can be called "incurably sick,"if we compare this regime to a human being."

Liu Yinquan, chair of US-based Chinese Social DemocraticParty, remarked that China is still a step away from starting a real rejuvenation process.

Liu Yinquan: "China's development is impededby the dictatorship regime. To start a real rejuvenation and development era for ourcountry, it is inevitable to carry out political reforms."

The CAS report was also criticized as its conclusions contradict those from other national research agencies.For example, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences just released its "Blue Book of Chinese Society."The book revealed that various social conflicts in Chinalead to tens or even hundreds of thousands mass protests every year.CAS itself also released an agricultural research reportlast year, which estimates that China is around 100 years behind the Unites States in agricultural economy.

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